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Headline : A change in the Maldives Editorial 26th Sep'18 TheHindu
Details :
Background - Yameen as President of Maldives:
  • The Maldives has been in turmoil since its first democratically-elected leader, Mohammed Nasheed, was forced out of office following a police mutiny in 2012. 
  • This was followed by the controversial election of Abdulla Yameen in 2013.
Anti-democratic policies:
  • Mr. Yameen’s presidency saw the Maldives flirting with Islamist radicalism and the democratic underpinnings of the nation came under assault. 
  • In early 2018, he imposed a 45-day state of emergency fearing an attempt by his political opponents to impeach him. 
  • This led him to target his own half brother and former President, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, and the judiciary. 
  • Even on the eve of the polling, the police was used to target the opposition, amid concerns that the campaign had been heavily tilted in favour of Mr. Yameen.
Anti-India policy and Closer ties with China and Saudi Arabia:
  • Mr. Yameen also fostered closer ties with China and Saudi Arabia, ignoring India and even pulling the Maldives out of the Commonwealth in 2016.
Tilt towards China
  • The eagerness with which Mr. Yameen had embraced China caught India off guard. 
  • During his China visit in 2018, the two nations signed 12 pacts, including a free trade agreement (FTA). 
  • Mr. Yameen not only fully endorsed China’s ambitious Maritime Silk Road initiative but also made the Maldives the second country in South Asia, after Pakistan, to enter into an FTA with China. 
  • The Yameen government pushed the FTA through the nation’s Parliament, the Majlis, stealthily, with the opposition not attending the parliamentary session.
  • Pro-China measures were criticized even by the opposition parties:
    • The opposition accused the Yameen government of allowing a Chinese ‘land grab’ of Maldivian islands, key infrastructure, and even essential utilities.
    • They said it not only undermines the independence of the Maldives, but the security of the entire Indian Ocean region.
  • Could have led to the government's fall:
    • The massive infrastructure growth funded by Chinese debt was a key part of Mr. Yameen’s election campaign but the massive debt trap made it a difficult proposition to be accepted.

Recent change in government in Maldives:
  • In domestic politics, democracy has a way of springing up surprises which few anticipate. 
  • When most had assumed that a second term for Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen was a done deal, given the controlled nature of the Maldivian elections, the people voted for change and brought to power the Opposition candidate, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. 
    • Mr. Solih is a senior politician in the Maldives and was the joint presidential candidate for an opposition alliance. 
  • They came out in huge numbers with the turnout being 89.2% and dealt a decisive blow to Mr. Yameen.
A win for democracy:
  • Mr. Solih's victory underscores the commitment of the Maldivian politicians to secure the future of democracy in their country. 
  • The outgoing President had in 2012 unceremoniously ousted the former, now exiled, President of the Maldives, Mohammed Nasheed
  • The recent elections were a do or die battle for democrats and they succeeded.
  • After the results came out, India’s Ministry of External Affairs said the election marked “not only the triumph of democratic forces in the Maldives but also reflects the firm commitment to the values of democracy and the rule of law.” 
  • The U.S. State Department said the Maldivian people had “raised their democratic voices to determine the future of their country.”

Can change India-Maldives relationship for the better:
  • Even in foreign relations, democracy can make crises disappear in the same manner in which it can create them. 
  • Mr. Yameen’s ouster has certainly produced a favourable outcome for India.
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi called Mr. Solih, underscoring his support for better ties between the two countries. 
  • India should seize the moment to rebuild ties with Maldives.

Challenges remain:
  • Mr. Yameen may have conceded defeat but many of the challenges the Maldives faces linger. 
  • The opposition may have been united in its desire to oust Mr. Yameen but this unity will be tested in governance. 
  • Democratic institutions have been weakened and a fragile democracy can also be susceptible to radical ideologies if not effectively governed. 
  • And China, with its economic presence in the Maldives, will continue to try to heavy influence the proceedings there.

Conclusion:
  • If there is one lesson out of the Maldives crisis, it is that political elites in India’s neighbours will come and go but if India can stand together with the aspirations of citizens of neighbouring countries, then the prospects of a long-term sustainable relationship will be much brighter.

Importance:
GS Paper II: International Relations